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Volltext Teschner_Florian.pdf1.pdf (4,2 MB)
URN (für Zitat) http://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:swb:90-295126
Titel Forecasting Economic Indices - Design, Performance, and Learning in Prediction Markets
Autor Teschner, Florian
Institution Institut für Informationswirtschaft und -management (IISM)
Dokumenttyp Buch
Verlag Karlsruhe
Jahr 2012
Hochschulschrift Dissertation
Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften (WIWI)
Institut für Informationswirtschaft und -management (IISM)
Prüfungsdaten: 27.07.2012
Referent/Betreuer: Prof. C. Weinhardt
Abstract Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government even though the historical accuracy and reliability is disputed. This thesis develops and studies a prediction market designed to forecast macro-economic indicators in Germany. The market forecasts performed well in comparison to the 'Bloomberg'-survey forecasts. Distinguishing between trading behavior and performance the thesis provides insights into the interplay between interface, information and decision-making.